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John GasawayESPN Insider
Thanks to a one-point win at home over Virginia, the Duke Blue Devils can now be found here at Bubble Watch. This is going to take some getting used to.
In the storied annals of Bubble Watch, you haven’t often seen Mike Krzyzewski’s team here. Perhaps very early in the tournament discussion, sure. But then “Should be in” teams become locks as we get closer to Selection Sunday, and, invariably, Duke is nowhere to be seen around these parts.
In fact, the Blue Devils haven’t been seeded lower than the No. 4 line in an NCAA tournament since 2007. Every February you’ll find Bubble Watch discussing some other teams at length while the Blue Devils prepare for yet another run as a high seed. That is, every February until now.
Give Krzyzewski’s team credit. Duke has won three straight for the first time since early January. Matthew Hurt drained five 3-pointers against Tony Bennett’s defense and rang up 22 points in a game that consisted of just 61 possessions. And through all the drama of Jalen Johnson’s departure and the Blue Devils’ struggles, this team today actually ranks second behind only Florida State in terms of offensive efficiency in ACC play.
At 10-8 and 8-6 in the ACC, Duke at least has a shot at a bid. An outside shot. Still, that’s more than what people expected to be saying about this team a week ago.
The Blue Devils may earn an at-large bid for the 2021 NCAA tournament, but first they have work to do. That’s where, for the first time in memory, you will find Duke … in the “Work to do” section of the ACC at Bubble Watch.
Here’s our current projection of the bubble:
Bids from traditional one-bid leagues (minus the Ivy): 20 teams
Locks: 13 teams
The bubble: 45 teams for 35 available spots
Should be in: 23 teams
Work to do: 22 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Florida State
Should be in
Despite a relatively modest scoring margin in ACC play, the Hokies are cruising toward a no-drama bid in the middle of the bracket. How has Mike Young‘s team worked this magic? The overtime win against Villanova on a neutral floor in November helps, as does a 5-1 record in conference games decided by seven points or fewer. Virginia Tech’s defense forces a fair share of misses at the rim and does a good job limiting opponents to one shot. Meanwhile, Keve Aluma has hit 63% of his 2s and recorded three double-doubles over his last four outings.
Meet the mercurial Tigers, clinging to “Should be in” status despite a track record that has included both peaks and valleys. On the one hand, Clemson has recorded victories by eight points or more against a veritable who’s who of tournament-track opponents, namely, Purdue, Alabama and Florida State. On the other hand, the Tigers have also been ground into a fine powder by Virginia (lost by 35), Georgia Tech (defeated by 18), Duke (drubbed by 26) and the aforementioned Seminoles (downed by 19). Add it all up and you have a respectable NET ranking, yes, but also a projected No. 8 seed that could elicit howls of skepticism from several reputable laptops next month.
For weeks, Louisville has carried a No. 8 seed in mock brackets, a position Bubble Watch was on the record as viewing as a “placeholder” seed. Now that Chris Mack’s team has returned from its COVID-19 pause, we still don’t know quite what to make of this team. The Cards were buried 99-54 by North Carolina in Chapel Hill. This is still a profile that features wins over Virginia Tech and Seton Hall. The NET ranking was, before the shellacking at UNC, nestled in the top 35. But Louisville has now lost four of its past six, and its upcoming home game against Notre Dame has taken on added importance. Maybe the game against the Tar Heels was just a one-time outlier for a team returning from hiatus. A win against the Fighting Irish would support that theory.
Work to do
When the Tar Heels are pushing the pace and crashing the offensive glass, the results can be spectacular. That sentence has been true throughout Roy Williams’ tenure in Chapel Hill, and it applied once again in UNC’s 45-point win at home over Louisville. The Cardinals were returning from a COVID-19 pause, and this was not the strongest version of the Cardinals that opponents have faced or will face this season. Nevertheless, North Carolina accelerated the Cards into the fastest game they had played this season. Day’Ron Sharpe alone recorded eight offensive rebounds, and as a team, the Tar Heels pulled down 47% of their missed shots. It was, to say the least, a significant victory for a team being projected as a No. 11 seed.
Everyone is saying that Duke is now “in the conversation.” What does that mean, exactly? In effect, it means the Blue Devils are a long shot, with an emphasis on “long.” Think of “in the conversation” (or ITC, as we like to say here at Bubble Watch HQ) as a tacit euphemism for: “You are at the lower edge of eight to 10 teams presumed to be outside the tournament field.” Duke’s profile features the catalytic win over Virginia along with one over Clemson. That’s it in terms of victories over at-large-quality teams, and that’s why the season finale against North Carolina in Chapel Hill will be a must-win for Mike Krzyzewski’s team. But, yes, this team is in the conversation, and that alone represents a big and for the most part unforeseen step forward.
Things did not look good for Syracuse’s tournament chances at halftime of the Orange’s game at home against Notre Dame. After trailing the Fighting Irish by 14 at intermission, Jim Boeheim’s group finished the contest on a 40-12 run to win by eight. Direct all appropriate accolades to Buddy Boeheim, who keyed the victory with 29 points. The win at least keeps the conversation going for a Syracuse team that will need everything both within and outside its control to break just right to earn an at-large bid. Step 1 would be consensus “next four out” status, and to reach that objective, the Orange need to win the next game, which is at Duke.
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia
Should be in
Texas had a 19-point cushion early in the second half against West Virginia. Then the cushion went away. A confrontation between Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones during a timeout seemed to mark a turning point of sorts, and the Longhorns lost 84-82 in Austin. Shaka Smart’s team has dropped five of its past eight, and the danger is that the gradual slide in UT’s projected seed that’s been evident throughout February could continue. At the beginning of the month, the Longhorns were seen as a No. 2 seed. That expectation has now dropped to the No. 4 line.
The Red Raiders have dropped two straight, and, while there’s no shame in losing to West Virginia and Kansas, this offense looks rather listless. Texas Tech managed to score just 132 points in 133 possessions in the two defeats, and in conference play Chris Beard’s team is making fewer than 48% of its 2s. Naturally, the Big 12 offers few easy games, and the challenges will continue for the Red Raiders. Games remain to be played at Oklahoma State and at home against Texas. This is a team that has envisioned as a No. 5 seed, and that could well turn out to be the case with a profile featuring wins over LSU and Texas and a season sweep of Oklahoma.
You don’t want to play this defense right now. The Jayhawks are on a roll on that side of the ball, and, in fact, Bill Self’s team has held five straight opponents under a point per possession. Granted, that run included three games against Iowa State (home and away) and Kansas State. Still, KU’s performance across the entire Big 12 season now looks outstanding. No one is catching Baylor for “best defense in the league” honors, of course, but Kansas has held its conference opponents to just 0.95 points per possession. The Jayhawks are earmarked for a spot on the No. 5 line in mock brackets and might be heading for an even higher seed.
Technically, Oklahoma State is ineligible for the postseason. The Cowboys have appealed that ruling with the NCAA, however, and as long as the appeal is pending, OSU is permitted to play its way into the tournament. Which is exactly what the Cowboys are doing: Cade Cunningham is the Big 12’s leading scorer en route, one presumes, to being the No. 1 overall pick or close to it in the 2021 NBA draft. As a projected No. 7 seed, Mike Boynton’s team excels at forcing misses on defense and exhibits an extreme (if fast-paced) interior orientation on offense. Oklahoma State loves to get to the line.
Big East
Locks: Villanova
Should be in
Marcus Zegarowski lived up to his billing as the preseason Big East player of the year and scored 25 points as the Bluejays buried Villanova 86-70 in Omaha. In converting 71% of its 2s and 46% of its 3s (on 12-of-26 shooting from beyond the arc), Creighton offered a repeat performance of the same dazzling accuracy it achieved in an 89-53 win over Seton Hall in January. Clearly, CU’s offense can explode at any time, and a big win over a tournament lock has the potential to boost the No. 6 seed Creighton had been showing in mock brackets. If and when that happens, though, be sure to give equal credit to the Greg McDermott’s defense. The Bluejays are neck-and-neck with UConn for the title of best D in Big East play.
Challenged by multiple COVID-19 pauses, Xavier finds itself trying to perform well enough for its best win to matter. In December, the Musketeers hosted Oklahoma in Cincinnati and came away with a 99-77 win. Multiple interruptions followed, however, and Travis Steele’s team is now coming off consecutive losses to UConn (in a game in which James Bouknight did not play) and St. John’s. The Musketeers are 11-4 with a NET ranking in the 40s and a projected No. 8 seed to their name. That spot in the mock brackets has felt like something of a placeholder, though, given this team’s travails, and Xavier has to record some wins sooner rather than later to preserve that seed.
Work to do
Prior to losing at Georgetown 81-75, the Pirates had spent February playing themselves out of bubble peril and all the way up to the relative safety of a projected spot on the No. 10 line. A Quad 2 loss to the Hoyas doesn’t necessarily undo all of that good work. Seton Hall might drop a seed line in mock brackets, but, regardless of seed, Kevin Willard’s team was always going to have to defend its spot head-to-head against the Big East’s other bubble teams. The Pirates will end their season with a home game against UConn and a road date at St. John’s. The Hall, the Huskies and the Johnnies are all fighting for bids, and it should be an intense series of bubble battles.
UConn’s eight-point loss at Villanova keeps the Huskies where they are for the time being. Where is that exactly? Good question. Purveyors of mock brackets are showing Dan Hurley’s group as either one of the very last teams in the field or one of the first ones out. The danger for the Huskies now is simply that the schedule isn’t necessarily brimming with chances for a team in this position to play its way comfortably into the field. UConn closes its season with two games against Georgetown, a home date against Marquette and a visit to Seton Hall. Obviously, a win on the road against the Pirates would be the most valuable prize, but will it be sufficient?
At some point, something will have to give in the standoff between the Red Storm’s victories and the team’s NET ranking. Mike Anderson’s men have won six of their past seven Big East games, yet their number in the NCAA’s metric of choice was still in the 70s at tipoff of what became a 93-84 win over Xavier in Queens. Whether it’s the ranking, the losses to Georgetown, Marquette and Butler or something else entirely, at 14-8, St. John’s finds itself relegated to “next four out” status in many mock brackets until further notice. Julian Champagnie and Posh Alexander make up a formidable duo, and this offense operates at Anderson’s preferred (fast) pace.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa
Should be in
The Badgers have lost three of their past four, and, depending on the eventual fates of Penn State and Maryland, it’s possible Greg Gard’s men haven’t defeated an NCAA tournament team since a mid-January win at Rutgers. Bubble Watch has already chronicled Wisconsin’s recent shooting woes and, well, here’s more chronicling. In the 77-62 loss to Iowa in Madison, the Badgers shot just 8-of-36 on their 2s. And, at the risk of impugning the defensive credentials of the Hawkeyes, this was against the previously permissive Iowa defense. While Wisconsin entered the game with a spot on the No. 5 line in mock brackets, the Badgers’ projected seed has in fact been dropping. That process appears likely to continue.
In a season in which headlines in the Big Ten have been dominated by the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois and Iowa, the Boilermakers have quietly put themselves in position to earn a very good spot in the bracket in their own right. Matt Painter’s men have games remaining at Penn State and at home against Wisconsin and Indiana. If, for the sake of discussion, Purdue won out, you would be looking at a team that is 18-8 and 13-6 in the historically strong Big Ten. While the Boilermakers are currently seen as a likely No. 6 seed, a few more wins could change that number.
Give the Scarlet Knights credit for making Michigan sweat. In a game the Wolverines seemed to have safely put away, Rutgers rallied and made things a bit more interesting before falling by seven in Ann Arbor. Steve Pikiell’s team is projected as a No. 6 seed, which, strictly speaking, will be the program’s best bracket position in the modern tournament era. It is also the program’s only bracket position since 1991, when Rutgers earned a No. 9 seed (and bowed out in the round of 64 against Arizona State). Don’t let the apparent normalcy around RU fool you. This is a very big deal.
Work to do
Minnesota’s position has grown more precarious. Joe Lunardi, an official Friend of Bubble Watch, dropped the team all the way down to the last spot in the field in the wake of the Golden Gophers’ 94-63 loss at home to Illinois. Richard Pitino’s team is still yet to win a game this season on an opponent’s home floor. For a time, this fact was balanced by the stellar roster of opponents who have lost at Williams Arena: Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue and Saint Louis, among others. But the Gophers are 13-10, 6-10 in the Big Ten and carrying a NET ranking that could drop into the 60s. It all feels precarious, but Minnesota can turn things around with a sufficient number of wins against Northwestern and Rutgers at home and against Nebraska and Penn State on the road.
Who says blue-chip programs are struggling in 2021? Michigan State looked like a regular Gonzaga in its 52-point second-half eruption at Indiana. The 78-71 loss suffered by the Hoosiers is not, by itself, fatal for the tournament hopes of a team previously projected as a No. 11 seed. The defeat does, however, represent a costly blown opportunity. Instead of one more win, Archie Miller’s team now has a second Quad 3 loss on its profile (the other being the win Northwestern posted in Bloomington). IU will wrap up its season with road games at Rutgers, MSU and Purdue and a home date against Michigan. As it stands now, the Hoosiers badly need a win in at least one of those games.
The Terrapins did what they needed to do, winning back-to-back games at home over Nebraska and improving to 13-10 and 7-9 in the Big Ten. Mark Turgeon’s guys are still shown as just outside the tournament field in mock brackets, and the Terrapins have their best shot at recording one more key win in their next game. Maryland will play at Rutgers, and a victory there would take its place alongside wins already recorded at Illinois and Wisconsin (not to mention one at home over Purdue and a season sweep of Minnesota). The Terps still have a shot.
Pac-12
Should be in
On the very cusp of being classified as a lock, USC saw its seven-game win streak come to an end in an 81-72 loss at home to Arizona. It was an impressive performance by the young Wildcats, and, by the same token, it is by no means the end of the world for the Trojans. Andy Enfield’s group still has an upwardly mobile move to “lock” territory in its near future, Evan Mobley is still having a Pac-12 player of the year-level season, and, indeed, he scored 23 points and recorded four blocks in a losing effort against Arizona. Nevertheless, the road doesn’t get any easier for USC. Its next games will be at Colorado and at Utah.
February is a mixed blessing when you’re Colorado. On the one hand, you’re comfortably situated in “Should be in” with a NET ranking that’s distinguished you as a top-20 team at times this month. On the other hand, you’ve never once cracked the AP Top 25 this season and your No. 7 seed in the mock brackets is continuing to fall because you’ve dropped two straight games. The four-point defeat at Oregon marked the second consecutive road setback for the Buffaloes. A CU offense that was once tops in Pac-12 play has now scored just 118 points in its last 132 possessions.
As a projected No. 9 seed with a 15-5 record, Mick Cronin’s team finds itself entirely reliant on Pac-12 teams other than USC to define just how good UCLA’s “good wins” really are. The Bruins lost to both Ohio State and San Diego State, leaving a three-point win at home over Colorado as far and away the highlight of this profile. Phrased less charitably, that game marks the Bruins’ only win against an at-large-caliber opponent. UCLA will have an opportunity to change this state of affairs when it closes the season with games against the Buffaloes and Trojans.
Work to do
With four straight wins and, most crucially, a 60-56 victory at home over Colorado in its pocket, Oregon has continued to solidify its projected No. 9 seed in the field of 68. Defeating the Buffaloes ranks alongside wins over Seton Hall and Stanford as this team’s most important wins of the season. Chris Duarte has hit shots from both sides of the arc all season long, the senior has posted the Pac-12’s highest steal rate and the Ducks as a team excel at forcing opposing offenses into turnovers. The only potential cloud on this horizon is the schedule. After hosting Utah, Dana Altman’s group is slated to finish the season with four road games.
After an epic 85-76 loss in three overtimes at Washington State, the Cardinal are 14-9 and 10-7 in the Pac-12. At tipoff against the Cougars, Jerod Haase’s group was being projected variously as just in or just outside of the field. By itself, a Quad 2 defeat on the road might not alter Stanford’s position in the bracket as much as all the wins and losses being recorded by all the other bubble teams. In any event, the Cardinal still have games to play at home against Oregon and Oregon State. Though Stanford has struggled at times this season with both a high turnover rate and a low offensive rebound percentage, this team might yet play its way into the field if it gives itself enough chances to score.
SEC
Locks: Alabama
Should be in
Apparently, the Volunteers very much enjoy having their blurb appear down here in “Should be in” at Bubble Watch. By any reasonable standard, a projected No. 4 seed with wins over Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri and Colorado should be a lock by now. Instead, Kentucky hammered Tennessee 70-55 in Knoxville, and so the Vols will cool their heels down here among the non-locks for a bit longer. You have to give it to Rick Barnes’ men — they’re compelling in an erratic sort of way. Since whipping Vanderbilt at home in mid-January, Tennessee has posted a 5-5 record.
Within a span of just four days, Cuonzo Martin’s team saw its projected position in the field fall two full seed lines, from a No. 4 to a No. 6 seed. That slide will be halted for the time being by the Tigers’ easy 93-78 win at South Carolina. Seeing action for the first time after missing his team’s losses to Arkansas and Georgia, Jeremiah Tilmon came off the bench and shared leading scorer honors with Dru Smith at 17 points. The Tigers now have an opportunity to lock down their spot as a middle seed with home games against Ole Miss and Texas A&M and a visit to Florida in the season finale.
Mike White’s team appears to have again found its footing after recording a seven-point win at home over Georgia. It was a welcome turn of events for a group with fresh memories of returning from a COVID-19 pause only to lose by 11 at Arkansas. UF is showing up in mock brackets as a No. 8 seed, one that hits its 2s and does an excellent job limiting the number of 3-point attempts recorded by opponents. The Gators still have road dates to play at Auburn and Kentucky before returning home for the season finale against Missouri.
Winners of seven straight SEC games, the Razorbacks are riding high. A team that was in danger of dropping out of the projected field a month ago is now seen as a likely No. 8 seed. In his second season in Fayetteville, Eric Musselman has Arkansas playing the kind of defense that was so familiar to Nevada’s opponents in the Mountain West during the coach’s tenure there. The Hogs limit opponents to one shot and force a fair number of turnovers. Musselman’s team has a chance to earn the program its highest seed since Bobby Portis and Michael Qualls entered the 2015 tournament on the No. 5 line.
With the way Alabama, Arkansas and now LSU are playing, the SEC is making a persuasive case that it’s a clear No. 3 nationally, not far behind the Big Ten and Big 12, in terms of conference strength. The Tigers have done their part to enhance the league’s reputation by winning three in a row and posting an average margin of victory in those games that clocks in at exactly 17 points. Cameron Thomas powered his team past Auburn with 27 points, and LSU has risen all the way to a No. 8 seed in mock brackets.
Work to do
Sometimes the bubble presents itself in stark clarity. This is one such time: Ole Miss needs to win its next game, at Missouri, to stick around here at Bubble Watch. After losing at home by 10 to Mississippi State, the Rebels are 12-9 and 7-7 in the SEC. The wins over Tennessee and Missouri got this team in the discussion, but more victories are now needed to stay there. While this is a good defensive team, Ole Miss has shot just 27.6% on its 3s in SEC play.
American
Locks: Houston
Work to do
With 40 minutes of basketball, the Shockers launched themselves from perhaps the third or fourth team under “Next four out” to quite possibly the middle of the action in “First four out.” A five-point win at home over a projected No. 2 seed like Houston will have that kind of impact. To be sure, Wichita State will have to work to keep its spot on the bubble. Two games remain to be played against SMU, and Isaac Brown’s team will finish the season with road games at Tulane and Temple. But, at 13-4 and with a win over the Cougars to their credit, the Shockers are now close enough to a bid to taste it. Well done, Coach Brown.
Maybe someday in the far off future the committee will be replaced entirely by a metric that measures how difficult it would be to duplicate any team’s wins and losses given the opponents and venues where that record was compiled. When that happens and “strength of record” (SOR), “wins above bubble” (WAB) or something similar is in the driver’s seat, it will be good news for SMU. In a SOR world, the 11-4 Mustangs would be a No. 10 seed. In the real world, however, Tim Jankovich’s men rank in the high 50s on the NET and inhabit the far outer fringes of the bubble. Keep winning, SMU.
Others
Locks: Gonzaga
Should be in
Barring unforeseen mishaps, BYU appears well on its way to enjoying the least stressful Selection Sunday of any West Coast Conference at-large aspirant not named “Gonzaga” since Saint Mary’s in 2017. (Though, to be sure, both the Cougars and the Gaels likely would have had drama-free Selection Sundays last March if there had been one.) Mark Pope’s team is looking like a potential No. 8 seed, with road wins at San Diego State and Utah State and a neutral-floor victory over St. John’s to its credit.
Congratulations to the Ramblers, winners of a close game for the first time all season. Prior a victory at home over Valparaiso by the score of 54-52, Loyola Chicago was 0-3 in games decided by five points or less. Porter Moser’s team still has two more home games to play, both against Southern Illinois. With their top-10 NET ranking and 19-4 record, the Ramblers are well on their way to the No. 9 seed they’re currently earning in mock brackets.
Not only are all of San Diego’s State’s losses “good,” Brian Dutcher’s men haven’t lost a game of any kind now in over a month. Setbacks to BYU, Colorado State and Utah State (twice, with both games played in Logan, Utah) are offset on the Aztecs’ profile by a season-opening win over UCLA and 15 other victories. This body of work has netted SDSU a No. 9 seed in mock brackets, a position that could be improved thanks to a season-ending two-game series against Boise State that will be played in San Diego.
Work to do
It’s fair to say things have taken a rather dramatic turn for the worse at VCU. First, allow Bubble Watch to extend best wishes to Bones Hyland, the Rams’ leading scorer and a potential Atlantic 10 Player of the Year. Hyland was carried from the court in the final minutes of regulation against George Mason in Richmond after he appeared to injure his left foot. He did not return, and VCU lost to the Patriots 79-76 in overtime. The Rams entered the contest being shown as a No. 10 seed, but the Quad 3 loss could drop the team’s previously spotless top-35 NET ranking into the same area where the A-10’s other bubble hopefuls reside. The tournament picture for Mike Rhoades’ team has grown cloudier after the past 45 minutes of basketball.
A two-game sweep over Utah State in Boise has enhanced a profile that was already landing the Broncos in mock brackets as a projected No. 11 seed. Leon Rice’s team now owns the back-to-back wins over the Aggies, as well as victories against BYU and Colorado State. BSU will end its season with a two-game set at San Diego State, and even one win there would figure to put the Broncos in a position of profile strength heading into the Mountain West tournament. Derrick Alston Jr. rang up 49 points in the two games against the Aggies and powers an offense that ranks No. 1 in the league in MWC play.
Despite trailing by 10 in the second half, Drake rallied and defeated Loyola Chicago by one point in Des Moines. The victory represented a complete turnaround after the Bulldogs had lost by 27 to the Ramblers on the same court just 24 hours earlier. The win also came without DU’s leading scorer, ShanQuan Hemphill, who missed both games against Loyola with a broken foot. Whether Hemphill will be able to return in time for a potential NCAA tournament appearance is unclear, but it appears his team might indeed make it that far. Drake is 20-2 and the Bulldogs already showed a good number for strength of record before the Quad 1 win over the Ramblers.
Few bubble teams have a profile more skewed toward conference play than the Bonnies, who played just two non-conference opponents (Akron and Hofstra) due to an early-season COVID pause. The good news for Mark Schmidt and his men is that St. Bonaventure has been excellent in Atlantic 10 play, combining tough defense with a heavy dose of offensive rebounding. For now, mock brackets envision a No. 11 seed for a team with a NET ranking in the high 30s and a nice winning percentage across a limited number of games. Note that, even in a three-point loss at VCU, Jalen Adaway was superb, with 23 points on 13 shots to go along with eight rebounds.
In the crowded bubble confines of the Mountain West, Colorado State has gone 1-1 against all three of the league’s other at-large hopefuls: Boise State, San Diego State and Utah State. So far, that track record and a NET ranking in the 40s has been sufficient for the Rams to be rewarded with either a projected spot among the last teams in the field or one amid the first teams outside it. If nothing else, this is one of the most accurate shooting offenses in the country, and CSU’s making all those shots without a single senior in the rotation. But can Niko Medved’s men hold that position when their remaining MWC schedule includes no further Quad 1 opportunities? We’re about to find out.
The good news for the Billikens is that they still have a workable if challenging path to an at-large bid even though they were swept by Dayton in the season series. SLU’s lofty NET ranking (in the low 30s before recording the second loss to UD) and the team’s wins over St. Bonaventure and especially LSU give this profile enough strength to place the Billikens among the first teams out of the field. But Travis Ford’s men will now have to play their way into the bracket with, ideally, three wins in games still to be played at VCU and at home against Richmond and UMass.
At 12-5 and 5-3 in the Atlantic 10, Richmond is confronting the possibility that its shortened and interrupted regular season might not give the team enough runway to punch a ticket for an at-large bid. Among the Spiders’ remaining scheduled opportunities, only the road game at Saint Louis holds the promise of significantly improving the team’s profile. Improvement is indeed required, for Richmond is landing on a good many “next four out” lists in various bracket projections. The Spiders might still have work to do when they enter the revamped A-10 tournament.
Charles Bassey is projected as a late first-round pick in the 2021 draft, and the 6-foot-11 junior has blocked shots, dominated the defensive glass and scored at a high volume in the paint all season long. In the Hilltoppers’ 73-71 win at Alabama in December, Bassey posted a 27-12 double-double against what we now know to be one of the nation’s strongest defenses. All of which raises the question of why WKU is appearing so far down this roster of bubble hopefuls. Losses to Charlotte and Louisiana Tech have left Rick Stansbury’s group with a NET ranking in the 70s. Running the table the rest of the way will improve that number somewhat, but an equally viable stratagem might be to beat out UAB for the automatic bid.