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John GasawayESPN Insider
One of the most striking features of this year’s bubble is the unmistakable prevalence of mid-majors.
Usually at this time of year, we should be debating whether a team from the middle of the standings in a major conference deserves an at-large bid at the expense of a program from outside the six “power” conferences. This March, however, it’s just as likely that one mid-major could take a bid away from another.
Consider Joe Lunardi’s latest projected bracket at Bracketology. Specifically, take note of the teams Joe shows as either just in (on seed lines Nos. 11 or 12) or just outside of (“first four out”) the field.
Yes, you’ll find major-conference names like Indiana, Oregon, UConn, Stanford and Maryland among these hopefuls. But the heavies from the power leagues are outnumbered in these same categories by teams like VCU, St. Bonaventure, Boise State, Drake, Colorado State, Utah State, Saint Louis and Richmond.
Several of these bubble teams are from either the Atlantic 10 or the Mountain West. It’s conceivable these programs could “beat each other up” the same way that major-conference aspirants are so commonly said to do to each other. In fact, Boise State and Utah State are playing a crucial two-game series in Boise.
Nevertheless, the sheer volume of names from outside the major conferences gives these programs a degree of hope that, at least this year, is also somewhat appropriate. An extra at-large spot has opened in the 2021 field because there will be no Ivy representative.
There’s a decent chance that bid will be earned not by the 10th-place team in the Big Ten or the fifth-place team in the Pac-12 bur rather by an up and coming mid-major.
Here’s our current projection of the bubble:
Bids from traditional one-bid leagues (minus the Ivy): 20 teams
Locks: 12 teams
The bubble: 46 teams for 36 available spots
Should be in: 22 teams
Work to do: 24 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks: Virginia
Should be in
Due to a wrinkle in the projected brackets, we here at Bubble Watch HQ get to comment on the Seminoles for what will likely be one last time before waving Leonard Hamilton’s men on through to the land of the locks. When the NCAA released its 16-team bracket preview, FSU was nowhere to be seen. That seemed like a perfectly defensible decision when, later that same Saturday, the Seminoles needed overtime to defeat Wake Forest in Tallahassee. Then again, Hamilton’s team was coming off a pause due to COVID-19 when it faced the Demon Deacons, and in its next home game, Florida State destroyed Virginia 81-60. On possessions on which it doesn’t commit a turnover, FSU is one of the most efficient offenses we’ve seen in the past decade of major-conference play.
Despite a relatively modest scoring margin in ACC play, the Hokies are cruising toward a no-drama bid in the middle of the bracket. How has Mike Young‘s team worked this magic? The overtime win against Villanova on a neutral floor in November helps, as does a 5-1 record in conference games decided by seven points or fewer. Virginia Tech’s defense forces a fair share of misses at the rim and does a good job limiting opponents to one shot. Meanwhile, Keve Aluma has hit 63% of his 2s and recorded three double-doubles over his last four outings.
On Super Bowl Sunday, Louisville announced that it was pausing activities after coach Chris Mack tested positive for COVID-19. (Get well soon, Coach!) Up until that time, the Cardinals had parlayed very good defense into a spot near or alongside the estimable likes of Florida State and Virginia Tech in the ACC standings. True, Louisville can still find itself on any given day without a Quad 1 win to its credit this season. (This state of affairs hinges on whether Pitt is above or below No. 75 in the NET rankings.) Still, this blank or penciled-in spot on the profile hasn’t prevented the Cards (nor should it) from showing up in projected brackets as a No. 8 seed or thereabouts.
Meet the mercurial Tigers, clinging to “Should be in” status despite a track record that has included both peaks and valleys. On the one hand, Clemson has recorded victories by eight points or more against a veritable who’s who of tournament-track opponents, namely, Purdue, Alabama and Florida State. On the other hand, the Tigers have also been ground into a fine powder by Virginia (lost by 35), Georgia Tech (defeated by 18), Duke (drubbed by 26) and the aforementioned Seminoles (downed by 19). Add it all up and you have a respectable NET ranking, yes, but also a projected No. 8 seed that could elicit howls of skepticism from several reputable laptops next month.
Work to do
Walker Kessler was his team’s leading scorer in North Carolina’s game at Virginia, and the freshman had a grand total of nine points. That tells you pretty much all you need to know about how the Tar Heels fared in a 60-48 loss to the Cavaliers, and now Roy Williams’ team faces home games against Virginia Tech and Louisville. Win both of those and your expectation of a No. 10 seed will come to seem insufficiently ambitious. Lose both, and you’ll need to worry about making the tournament, period. North Carolina heads into this crucial two-game stretch with a knack for creating second chances on offense. Even the rock fight in Charlottesville yielded 12 offensive boards for the Heels.
Say hello to the season’s first new member of the impressive Bubble Watch club. No, Syracuse isn’t here by virtue of its most recent result (a victory at home over Boston College). The win at home over Virginia Tech is this profile’s strongest bullet point, and, despite being swept by Pitt, Jim Boeheim’s 12-6 team is the equal of North Carolina in the NET rankings and superior to several bubble teams in terms of strength of record. Now, the bad news for the Orange faithful: Syracuse is, as our colleague Joe Lunardi likes to say, “on the bubble of the bubble.” The Orange will have to overtake competitors such as Saint Louis, Richmond and Maryland to actually earn an at-large bid. But the Cuse is in the discussion.
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia
Should be in
With wins in their past two outings over Kansas State and TCU, the Longhorns have halted a slide in which they lost four of five games. In addition, the NCAA awarded Texas a No. 4 seed in its 16-team bracket preview prior to UT’s tipoff against the Horned Frogs. That’s a sound verdict, certainly, with respect to a profile that features wins over West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Indiana and North Carolina. Indeed, there’s still a possibility that a Texas team that was earning a spot on the No. 1 line in mock brackets last month could improve its seeding thanks to upcoming opportunities against Oklahoma, the Mountaineers, the Jayhawks and Texas Tech. Shaka Smart’s men are seeking their first victory over an at-large-quality opponent since the two-point win over West Virginia in Morgantown in early January.
The most memorable aspect of Texas Tech’s loss at home to West Virginia was Chris Beard being thrown out of the game in the closing seconds after literally going to the floor to make his point to the officials. In addition to providing good theatrics, however, the game highlighted a problem that has bedeviled an otherwise excellent defense throughout the Big 12 season. Opponents have been on fire from the perimeter against the Red Raiders. The Mountaineers hit 7-of-14 from beyond the arc, and the Big 12 collectively has shot 41% on its 3s against Texas Tech. If opponents ever cool down from outside, Beard’s team could be even stronger than a projected No. 4 seed.
Maybe Kansas should have tried being unranked a long time ago. Embracing their new status outside the Top 25, the Jayhawks have reeled off three straight wins for the first time since December. Victories over Oklahoma State and Iowa State (twice) have lifted Bill Self’s team to 15-7 overall. Jalen Wilson recorded a 22-10 double-double in the second game against ISU, David McCormack’s numbers in Big 12 play are superior more or less across the board to his season totals and the team as a whole has played very good interior D against the rest of the league. The No. 5 seed currently projected for the Jayhawks in mock brackets is starting to feel a bit low.
Technically, Oklahoma State is ineligible for the postseason. The Cowboys have appealed that ruling with the NCAA, however, and as long as the appeal is pending, OSU is permitted to play its way into the tournament. Which is exactly what the Cowboys are doing: Cade Cunningham is the Big 12’s leading scorer en route, one presumes, to being the No. 1 overall pick or close to it in the 2021 NBA draft. As a projected No. 7 seed, Mike Boynton’s team excels at forcing misses on defense and exhibits an extreme (if fast-paced) interior orientation on offense. Oklahoma State loves to get to the line.
Big East
Locks: Villanova
Should be in
Marcus Zegarowski lived up to his billing as the preseason Big East player of the year and scored 25 points as the Bluejays buried Villanova 86-70 in Omaha. In converting 71% of its 2s and 46% of its 3s (on 12-of-26 shooting from beyond the arc), Creighton offered a repeat performance of the same dazzling accuracy it achieved in an 89-53 win over Seton Hall in January. Clearly, CU’s offense can explode at any time, and a big win over a tournament lock has the potential to boost the No. 6 seed Creighton had been showing in mock brackets. If and when that happens, though, be sure to give equal credit to the Greg McDermott’s defense. The Bluejays are neck-and-neck with UConn for the title of best D in Big East play.
Challenged by multiple COVID pauses, Xavier finds itself trying to perform well enough for its best win to matter. In December the Musketeers hosted Oklahoma in Cincinnati and came away with a 99-77 win. Multiple interruptions followed, however, and Travis Steele’s team is now coming off consecutive losses to UConn (in a game where James Bouknight did not play) and St. John’s. The Musketeers are 11-4 with a NET ranking in the 40s and a projected No. 8 seed to their name. That spot in the mock brackets has felt like something of a placeholder, though, given this team’s travails, and Xavier has to record some wins sooner rather than later to preserve that seed.
Work to do
For a bubble team with a 12-8 record, Seton Hall appears to be in surprisingly good shape. The road wins at Penn State, Xavier and UConn look impressive in terms of the NET rankings (solidly Quad 1), and a majority of forecasters show the Pirates making the NCAA tournament. To be sure, those same observers almost without exception have SHU penciled in for a double-digit seed. Nevertheless, Sandro Mamukelashvili is a potential Big East Player of the Year, and for much of the season the Hall was pushing Creighton for the title of best 2-point shooting team in league play.
James Bouknight not only returned from his elbow injury after missing eight games, he recorded a spectacular slam dunk on a putback within moments of Dan Hurley putting him on the floor. The Huskies channeled that same energy and prevailed at home 73-61 against Providence. The Quad 3 victory keeps 10-5 UConn right where it was before tipoff, poised on the edge of the bubble as either one of the last teams in or as one of the first teams out. With a NET ranking in the high 50s, the potentially rejuvenated Huskies could enhance this profile dramatically with a win this weekend at Villanova. A victory against the Wildcats at Finneran Pavilion would go nicely alongside Connecticut’s neutral-floor win over USC in December.
At some point, something will have to give in the standoff between the Red Storm’s victories and the team’s NET ranking. Mike Anderson’s men have won six of their last seven Big East games, yet their number in the NCAA’s metric of choice was still in the 70s at tipoff of what became a 93-84 win over Xavier in Queens. Whether it’s the ranking, the losses to Georgetown, Marquette and Butler or something else entirely, at 14-8 St. John’s finds itself relegated to “next four out” status in many mock brackets until further notice. Julian Champagnie and Posh Alexander make up a formidable duo and this offense operates at Anderson’s preferred (fast) pace.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa
Should be in
Michigan was coming off a long pause due to COVID, but the Wolverines outscored the Badgers 40-20 in the second half to win by eight in Madison, Wisconsin. Chalk the game up as a lost opportunity for Wisconsin, which didn’t hear its name called in the NCAA’s 16-team bracket preview the previous day and thus carried a No. 5 seed in most mock brackets before tipoff. Greg Gard’s team will most likely earn a nice seed regardless, but the coach is in all probability concerned by the performance of this offense. Basically, the Badgers are a perimeter-oriented team that’s not making its 3s. Wisconsin has shot just 25% from beyond the arc over its past three games, and Gard’s men have repeated the “win-lose-win-lose” sequence since late January.
Trevion Williams wore out Michigan State, to the tune of 28 points in 31 minutes in Purdue’s 10-point win at home over the Spartans. While the 14-8 overall record and 9-6 mark in the Big Ten may look straightforward enough, included in those numbers are a sweep of Ohio State as well as wins over Minnesota and Indiana. This body of work has pretty consistently netted Purdue a No. 6 seed in mock brackets. The Boilers favor a methodical tempo and love to crash their offensive glass.
The Scarlet Knights love to pressure the ball on defense, having recorded a takeaway on roughly one in every five possessions in conference play. That may not sound like an exceedingly high number, but in the ultra-low-turnover Big Ten it’s as close to “40 minutes of hell” as you’re going to see. Rutgers would have made its first NCAA tournament in 29 years if the event had been held as scheduled last March. Instead, Steve Pikiell’s program is about to return after an absence of 30 years, perhaps as a No. 7 seed. In the Knights’ 14-point win at home over Northwestern, Myles Johnson recorded a 12-14 double-double to go along with four blocks. The junior has been a model of efficiency in a supporting role all season.
Work to do
In the wake of Minnesota’s 13-point loss at Maryland, the good news for fans in Minneapolis is that the Golden Gophers had built in a margin of safety in projected brackets before game time. Richard Pitino’s men were being shown as a likely No. 9 seed, meaning a Quad 1 loss to the Terrapins isn’t going to single-handedly eject Minnesota from the bracket. Then again, the bad news is simply that the Gophers looked so docile and cooperative in going down to defeat. On the Big Ten season, Minnesota is shooting just 29% on its 3s, and while it wasn’t an issue against the hot-shooting Terps, the Gophers are also prone to being overwhelmed on their defensive glass. Fortunately for this team’s seed, however, the 2021 Big Ten is nothing if not a land of profile-enhancing opportunity. Minnesota’s next two games are at Indiana and at home against Illinois.
The Hoosiers do seem bound and determined to test just how impressed the committee should be by a team that swept Iowa, period. Going 2-0 against the Hawkeyes is an outstanding profile-builder, no doubt, but Indiana is also 11-9 overall and 6-7 in the Big Ten. In its defeat at Ohio State, Archie Miller’s team trailed 21-6 to start the contest and ended up losing 78-59. Prior to tipoff, Indiana was seen as a relatively safe No. 10 seed in mock brackets. Losing to a projected No. 1 seed on its home floor will not move that needle significantly. The Hoosiers’ NET ranking varies between the high 40s and low 50s and IU will now host a two-game homestand against Minnesota and Michigan State. In short, this lines up as yet another suspenseful bubble season in Bloomington.
Thanks in part to a 21-11 double-double from Aaron Wiggins, the Terrapins stand at 1-0 midway through a two-game series at home against Nebraska. Mark Turgeon’s team bottomed out at 4-9 in Big Ten play and currently stands 6-9, but, with a favorable schedule the rest of the way, Maryland has a shot at wrapping up conference play at .500. The Terps’ road wins at Illinois and Wisconsin as well as a victory at home over Purdue and a season sweep of Minnesota have not yet been quite enough to land them firmly in the projected field. Still, as a member of “first four out,” Maryland is within striking distance and appears to be heading in the right direction.
Let’s not overthink this. Penn State lost 62-61 at home to Nebraska, a turn of events that, at game time, qualified as a Quad 4 defeat. (Ironically, in the very act of winning, the Cornhuskers improved their NET ranking enough to make this “merely” a Quad 3 loss for the Nittany Lions. That’s still really bad.) Jim Ferry’s team is 7-10 overall and 4-9 in the Big Ten. You’re asking, “Why are we still talking about this team at Bubble Watch?” Because, dear reader, in its next game Penn State will host Ohio State. If the Nittany Lions got it into their heads to UMBC this thing something fierce and somehow shock the world, we’d be looking at a profile with wins over the Buckeyes, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Rutgers and Maryland. But, yes, that’s pretty much what it will take for Penn State to hang around these parts.
Pac-12
Should be in
Thanks to 29 points from Tahj Eaddy, Andy Enfield’s team turned back a persistent group of Washington State Cougars in Pullman to post a sixth consecutive win. The conventional wisdom holds that USC may have been the next program to hear its name called if the NCAA had kept going after the first 16 teams in its bracket preview. While the Trojans have likely been fortunate in the number of 3s missed by their conference opponents, this is still the Pac-12’s best defense by a wide margin. Those same opponents are making just 44% of their 2s while attempting an exceptionally low number of free throws. If USC really does get a No. 5 seed, this team has the ability to beat the No. 4 in its region and give the top seed a game.
Losing a road game at Cal, as Colorado did by the score of 71-62, qualifies as a Quad 3 defeat. It is CU’s third such loss of the season, to go along with setbacks at home against Utah and on the road at Washington. Prior to falling in Berkeley, Tad Boyle’s team was being projected as a No. 6 seed. Now, at 16-6 and carrying what the committee will likely view as three “bad” losses, that seed is in all probability going to drop. At the same time, a team with wins over USC, Oregon and Stanford (twice) still has some strong points on it résumé.
As a projected No. 8 seed with a 14-5 record, Mick Cronin’s team finds itself entirely reliant on Pac-12 teams other than USC to define just how good UCLA’s “good wins” really are. The Bruins lost to both Ohio State and San Diego State, leaving a three-point win at home over Colorado as far and away the highlight of this profile. Phrased less charitably, that game marks the Bruins’ only win against an at-large-caliber opponent. UCLA will have an opportunity to change this state of affairs when they close the season with games against the Buffaloes and Trojans. In the meantime, give credit to Johnny Juzang. The Kentucky transfer erupted for a career-high 32 points to end the Bruins’ losing streak at two and give his team a much needed 64-61 win at Washington.
Work to do
This might be the year to commit fully to the “quack attack” rallying cry in Eugene. The Ducks’ aggressive defense is forcing Pac-12 opponents into turnovers on 21% of their possessions. Absent that stat, you’re looking at an Oregon team that’s barely outscoring the rest of the league. Powered by all of the takeaways, however, UO has won three straight and now stands at 7-3 in the Pac-12. Eugene Omoruyi scored 19 for the Ducks in a 63-61 win at Arizona that gave players on both teams just 58 possessions in which to record impressive stats (it was the slowest-paced Pac-12 game of the season). Dana Altman’s team is a projected No. 11 seed that appears to be on the rise.
Alongside the suspenseful likes of VCU, UConn and Saint Louis, Stanford has been a fixture on the borderline between “in” and “out” for the better part of the bubble season. On the one hand, the Cardinal can boast of wins over Alabama and UCLA. On the other hand, Jerod Haase’s men are just 9-6 in the Pac-12, with losses to Arizona State and Utah. A NET ranking that in recent days has dipped as low as the 60s doesn’t help matters. Stanford now faces a rather pivotal two-game road trip. Wins against Washington and Washington State may be little noticed, but they would in fact get the Cardinal closer to the finish line in relatively good shape. Two losses, conversely, would be highly detrimental to their chances.
SEC
Locks: Alabama
Should be in
Saturday was a wild ride for the Volunteers. After receiving a No. 4 seed in the NCAA’s bracket preview, Rick Barnes’ men promptly went out and dropped a 78-65 decision at LSU. The defeat leaves the Vols 14-5 overall and 7-5 in SEC play. A profile that includes wins over the likes of Missouri, Kansas, Colorado and Arkansas will quite rightly earn the respectful attention of the committee next month. One evaluative challenge for those decision-makers, however, will be the fact that, at least through mid-February, this same Tennessee team struggled to eke out a positive scoring margin in SEC play. Fortunately for fans in Knoxville, that margin’s likely to improve. The Vols close the (scheduled) season exclusively against opponents not projected to make the tournament: South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Auburn.
When Bubble Watch roared to life in the hours after the Super Bowl, the discussion among staff members here at HQ centered on whether to make Missouri a “lock.” Now the question is whether the 13-6 Tigers may soon be found in “Work to do.” This team has lost three straight (at Ole Miss, in overtime at home to Arkansas and at Georgia), the last two without Jeremiah Tilmon in the lineup. The Tigers entered the game against the Bulldogs projected as a No. 5 seed. That seed may fall, however, along with a NET ranking that was once in the top 10 and is now at risk of dropping into the 40s.
The Gators played their first game in 13 days following a COVID pause and were handed a road date against possibly the hottest team in the league. The result was, perhaps not surprisingly, an 11-point loss at Arkansas. Mike White’s team is being shown as a No. 7 seed in mock brackets, and Florida’s profile includes wins over West Virginia, Tennessee and LSU. Nevertheless, UF has now dropped two straight and this team’s upcoming home game against Georgia looms as a bit more important than previously anticipated.
Winners of seven straight SEC games, the Razorbacks are riding high. A team that was in danger of dropping out of the projected field a month ago is now seen as a likely No. 8 seed. In his second season in Fayetteville, Eric Musselman has Arkansas playing the kind of defense that was so familiar to Nevada’s opponents in the Mountain West during the coach’s tenure there. The Hogs limit opponents to one shot and force a fair number of turnovers. Musselman’s team has a chance to earn the program its highest seed since Bobby Portis and Michael Qualls entered the 2015 tournament on the No. 5 line.
Work to do
A 13-point win at home over Tennessee on Saturday summed up what LSU does best. Cameron Thomas and Javonte Smart combined for 45 points, the Tigers connected on 20 of their 31 tries inside the arc and Will Wade’s men gave the ball away just 11 times in a 67-possession contest. A high degree of 2-point accuracy and a bare minimum of turnovers have distinguished LSU from most competing SEC offenses all season long, and those strengths are paying dividends. The Tigers looked like a probable No. 10 seed before the win over the Vols, and now that expectation appears to be on the low side. Previously, the knock on LSU was that it hadn’t won any “big” games. The victory over Tennessee addresses that objection quite nicely.
With wins in four consecutive games and a NET ranking that’s risen into the 50s, Ole Miss is making its debut here at Bubble Watch. Devontae Shuler scored 31 at South Carolina as the Rebels improved to 12-8 overall and 7-6 in the SEC. To be sure, Kermit Davis and his men have literal work to do in order to earn an at-large invite. This is a team that was swept by Georgia and that shoots just 28% on its 3s in conference play. But, at a minimum, Ole Miss has now played itself within striking distance of a bid. The Rebels close with games against Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Kentucky. A 3-1 run over that stretch would give Ole Miss a 10-7 SEC record and, one suspects, the ear of the committee.
American
Locks: Houston
Work to do
Maybe someday in the far off future the committee will be replaced entirely by a metric that measures how difficult it would be to duplicate any team’s wins and losses given the opponents and venues where that record was compiled. When that happens and “strength of record” (SOR), “wins above bubble” (WAB) or something similar is in the driver’s seat, it will be good news for SMU. In a SOR world, the 11-4 Mustangs would be a No. 10 seed. In the real world, however, Tim Jankovich’s men rank in the high 50s on the NET and inhabit the far outer fringes of the bubble. Keep winning, SMU.
Others
Locks: Gonzaga
Should be in
Barring unforeseen mishaps, BYU appears well on its way to enjoying the least stressful Selection Sunday of any West Coast Conference at-large aspirant not named “Gonzaga” since Saint Mary’s in 2017. (Though, to be sure, both the Cougars and the Gaels likely would have had drama-free Selection Sundays last March if there had been one.) Mark Pope’s team is looking like a potential No. 8 seed, with road wins at San Diego State and Utah State and a neutral-floor victory over St. John’s to its credit.
The Ramblers had risen all the way to a No. 9 or No. 8 seed in many mock brackets by the time Porter Moser’s team fell to Drake 51-50 in Des Moines, Iowa. The defeat came one day after Loyola had won by 27 against the same opponent on the same floor. The split decision is likely good news for the Missouri Valley Conference and, in any event, the Ramblers’ profile still looks great. At 18-4 and with a NET ranking that was actually in the nation’s top 10 at tipoff on Sunday, Loyola has a body of work that should earn it an at-large bid. Moser’s team will close the regular season with three home games against two opponents, Valparaiso and Southern Illinois, with a combined 8-16 record in Valley play.
Work to do
The Aztecs opened their regular season with wins over UCLA and Arizona State (in Tempe) in their first five games, and Brian Dutcher’s team is in the thick of the most competitive Mountain West title race in years. Like Boise State, SDSU is currently projected as a No. 9 seed despite the fact that on any given day the Aztecs can boast of a better NET ranking than Missouri, Kansas or Florida State. Since dropping back-to-back games at Utah State in mid-January, San Diego State has reeled off six straight wins.
Greetings from the Mountain West Conference, where conventional wisdom says the league may put four teams into the NCAA tournament for the first time since the halcyon days of 2013. The Broncos were at the forefront of this 2021 MWC charge until Leon Rice’s men dropped back-to-back road games at Nevada. Now BSU is appearing in mock brackets as a No. 11 seed, one with wins at BYU and Colorado State to its credit. Boise State is slated to close its regular season with a pivotal two-game series at San Diego State.
After winning at home 67-64 over St. Bonaventure, the Rams are forcing their Atlantic 10 opponents into turnovers on a rather remarkable 25% of their possessions. Adrian Baldwin and Nah’Shon Hyland have two of the highest steal rates in the league and even when opponents do hold onto the ball Hason Ward blocks their shots with regularity. In short, this is a defense to rival Mike Rhoades’ 2019 team, a group that earned a lofty No. 8 seed only to bow out to UCF in the round of 64. VCU this year appears to be on track for something more along the lines of a No. 11 seed, but the defense being played by the Rams could earn the program its first NCAA tournament win since 2016.
In the crowded bubble confines of the Mountain West, Colorado State has gone 1-1 against all three of the league’s other at-large hopefuls: Boise State, San Diego State and Utah State. So far, that track record and a NET ranking in the 40s has been sufficient for the Rams to be rewarded with either a projected spot among the last teams in the field or one amid the first teams outside it. If nothing else, this is one of the most accurate shooting offenses in the country, and CSU’s making all those shots without a single senior in the rotation. But can Niko Medved’s men hold that position when their remaining MWC schedule includes no further Quad 1 opportunities? We’re about to find out.
Few bubble teams have a profile more skewed toward conference play than the Bonnies, who played just two non-conference opponents (Akron and Hofstra) due to an early-season COVID pause. The good news for Mark Schmidt and his men is that St. Bonaventure has been excellent in Atlantic 10 play, combining tough defense with a heavy dose of offensive rebounding. For now, mock brackets envision a No. 11 seed for a team with a NET ranking in the high 30s and a nice winning percentage across a limited number of games. Note that, even in a three-point loss at VCU, Jalen Adaway was superb, with 23 points on 13 shots to go along with eight rebounds.
Despite trailing by 10 in the second half, Drake rallied and defeated Loyola Chicago by one point in Des Moines. The victory represented a complete turnaround after the Bulldogs had lost by 27 to the Ramblers on the same court just 24 hours earlier. The win also came without DU’s leading scorer, ShanQuan Hemphill, who missed both games against Loyola with a broken foot. Whether Hemphill will be able to return in time for a potential NCAA tournament appearance is unclear, but it appears his team might indeed make it that far. Drake is 20-2 and the Bulldogs already showed a good number for strength of record before the Quad 1 win over the Ramblers.
Utah State’s currently on what appears to be a COVID-19 pause. (“Health and safety concerns” have arisen, according to the MWC office.) No games are scheduled until next week’s two-game set at Boise State. If the Aggies can return to action, they’re very much alive in the bubble discussion thanks in large part to a two-game sweep of San Diego State in mid-January. Conference opponents have made less than 40% of their 2s against a front line anchored by Neemias Queta. If Queta’s team can get that far, the 7-foot junior stands an excellent chance of rating as the NCAA tournament’s premier rim defender. One or two wins against the Broncos next week would improve a NET ranking that varies between the high 40s and low 50s.
Give Richmond credit. The Spiders have been challenged by multiple COVID-19 pauses and by season-ending injuries to Nick Sherod and Connor Crabtree, yet Chris Mooney’s team still has a shot at playing its way into the field. Richmond’s win over Loyola Chicago in Indianapolis in December is the rock on which the Spiders are building their case for an at-large bid. Beating the Ramblers on a neutral floor constitutes a Quad 1 win, one that, in NET terms, is more impressive than UR’s 80-74 victory at Davidson. Mooney’s men will carry a 10-4 record into their bubble throwdown at home next week against crosstown rival VCU.
The only suspense in SLU’s 78-57 win at home over La Salle came when Travis Ford pulled Jordan Goodwin from the game with 2:20 remaining in the contest. This show of sportsmanship prevented the senior from an opportunity to record a triple-double. Goodwin instead took a seat on the bench with 16 points, 15 boards and eight assists. The Billikens were marked as preseason co-favorites along with Richmond in the Atlantic 10 until COVID pauses had their say. It’s possible that, at 11-3, SLU’s hitting its stride at last and is ready to ascend from its current “first four out” status.
Charles Bassey is projected as a late first-round pick in the 2021 draft, and the 6-foot-11 junior has blocked shots, dominated the defensive glass and scored at a high volume in the paint all season long. In the Hilltoppers’ 73-71 win at Alabama in December, Bassey posted a 27-12 double-double against what we now know to be one of the nation’s strongest defenses. All of which raises the question of why WKU is appearing so far down this roster of bubble hopefuls. Losses to Charlotte and Louisiana Tech have left Rick Stansbury’s group with a NET ranking in the 70s. Running the table the rest of the way will improve that number somewhat, but an equally viable stratagem might be to beat out UAB for the automatic bid.