On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida, for Super Bowl LV. Will Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the high-powered Chiefs offense defend their title and take home another Super Bowl championship? Can Tom Brady pull off an upset and get his seventh Super Bowl ring? Will one of the quarterbacks earn Super Bowl MVP honors, or will another playmaker emerge?
Ahead of kickoff, ESPN’s analysts, writers, commentators, columnists and pundits make their predictions for the big game.
Jump to: Who wins?
Chiefs | Bucs | MVP
The tally: Chiefs have the advantage, 65-23
Of 88 experts who weighed in, the Chiefs were favored by 65 of them (73.9%), while the Buccaneers claimed 23 votes (26.1%).
The most common predicted final score was 31-27, which was picked by eight of our experts. The lowest combined total was 38 (21-17). The highest combined score was 78 (41-37). The largest margin of victory predicted was 24 points (48-24).
Betting context: Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill currently favors Kansas City by 3 points. Fifty of the 88 experts have the Chiefs covering that spread, while 26 say the Buccaneers will cover. Twelve have it as a push. The over/under is 56.5 at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. Fifty-four of the experts in this pool have the game going over that total, while 34 like the under.
ESPN’s Football Power Index: FPI likes the Chiefs (52.1%) by an average of 0.7 points.
Predicting a Chiefs victory (65)
“The Chiefs were the better team when these two teams met in Week 12. While the Bucs have improved since, so have the Chiefs. Kansas City wins 30-20.” — Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter
Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders: 34-31
Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter: 30-20
Ben Baby, Bengals reporter: 31-17
Bill Barnwell, NFL writer: 31-24
Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter: 26-21
Brooke Pryor, Steelers reporter: 38-35
Cameron Wolfe, Dolphins reporter: 31-27
Chris Berman, NFL studio host: 30-20
Courtney Cronin, Vikings reporter: 33-28
Dan Orlovsky, NFL analyst: 30-27
David Fleming, NFL writer: 48-24
David Newton, Panthers reporter: 31-23
Doug Kezirian, ESPN Chalk: 28-24
Ed Werder, NFL reporter: 34-24
Elizabeth Merrill, NFL writer: 31-30
Emmett Golden, ESPN radio: 41-37
Field Yates, NFL analyst: 34-26
Hannah Storm, SportsCenter anchor: 31-24
Ian Fitzsimmons, ESPN radio: 31-24
Jake Trotter, Browns reporter: 31-28
Jamison Hensley, Ravens reporter: 34-20
Jason Fitz, ESPN radio: 41-28
Jason Reid, The Undefeated: 34-21
Jay Williams, ESPN radio: 34-21
Jeff Dickerson, Bears reporter: 30-26
Jeremy Fowler, NFL writer/reporter: 27-24
Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN radio: 30-24
John Sutcliffe, ESPN Deportes: 37-30
Jordan Raanan, Giants reporter: 33-32
Kary Correa, ESPN Deportes: 27-24
Kenny Mayne, SportsCenter anchor: 35-28
Kevin Seifert, NFL writer/reporter: 37-34
Kevin Van Valkenburg, NFL writer: 41-24
Keyshawn Johnson, NFL analyst: 42-27
Laura Rutledge, NFL Live host: 35-31
Lindsey Thiry, Rams reporter: 31-28
Marcus Spears, NFL analyst: 31-24
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: 31-23
Matt Hasselbeck, NFL analyst: 33-30
Matt Jones, ESPN radio: 38-28
Matthew Berry, fantasy writer: 30-24
Max Kellerman, First Take: 31-27
Mike Golic Jr., ESPN radio: 31-27
Mike Greenberg, Get Up! host: 30-27
Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst: 31-27
Mike Triplett, Saints reporter: 30-26
Mike Wells, Colts reporter: 34-24
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: 31-27
Nick Wagoner, 49ers reporter: 34-23
Nicole Briscoe, SportsCenter anchor: 35-32
Pablo Viruega, ESPN Deportes: 35-31
Paul Gutierrez, Raiders reporter: 34-31
Rex Ryan, NFL analyst: 28-21
Rob Demovsky, Packers reporter: 31-30
Ryan McGee, writer: 34-27
Sarah Barshop, Texans reporter: 34-24
Sebastian Martinez-Christensen, ESPN Deportes: 27-23
Seth Walder, analytics writer: 34-21
Shae Cornette, ESPN radio: 31-21
Shelley Smith, Chargers reporter: 27-14
Stephen A. Smith, First Take: 38-34
Tim Hasselbeck, NFL analyst: 21-17
Tim Keown, NFL writer: 35-24
Todd Archer, Cowboys reporter: 31-27
Todd McShay, NFL draft analyst: 30-26
Predicting a Buccaneers victory (23)
“The Bucs’ defense has 7.0 sacks and seven takeaways in three playoff games — and Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett can make Mahomes feel uncomfortable in the pocket. But how will their defensive backs hold up against the Chiefs’ speed? I think they’ll do just enough. Bucs win 29-27.” — Jenna Laine, Buccaneers reporter
Chris Carlin, ESPN radio: 34-30
Dan Graziano, NFL writer/reporter: 35-31
Eduardo Varela, ESPN Deportes: 38-35
Jenna Laine, Buccaneers reporter: 29-27
John Buccigross, SportsCenter anchor: 26-23
John Keim, Washington reporter: 28-24
Jordan Cornette, ESPN radio: 27-24
Josh Weinfuss, Cardinals reporter: 35-34
Kirk Morrison, NFL analyst: 31-27
Mark Herzlich, analyst: 31-27
Matt Barrie, SportsCenter anchor: 31-27
Matt Schick, ESPN studio host: 34-30
Mauricio Pedroza, ESPN Deportes: 30-27
Michelle Beisner-Buck, NFL reporter: 28-21
Mike Clay, NFL analyst: 30-27
Mike DiRocco, Jaguars reporter: 31-24
Mike Reiss, Patriots reporter: 30-27
Molly Qerim Rose, First Take host: 31-27
Randy Scott, SportsCenter anchor: 32-27
Rich Cimini, Jets reporter: 35-31
Seth Wickersham, NFL writer: 30-27
Tedy Bruschi, NFL analyst: 27-24
Turron Davenport, Titans reporter: 35-31
Super Bowl MVP
Mahomes was the most common pick to win Super Bowl MVP. That’s not surprising, considering he’s the quarterback of the team most of our experts picked to win the Super Bowl — and last season’s Super Bowl MVP. Fifty of the 88 experts who weighed in on MVP picked Mahomes, 56.8% of the vote. Eight of the past 11 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks.
Brady was the next-most-common pick, earning 16 votes. Eight other players earned at least one vote. Odds below are via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (-120): Aaron Schatz, Bill Barnwell, Brady Henderson, Brooke Pryor, Cameron Wolfe, Chris Berman, Courtney Cronin, David Newton, Doug Kezirian, Elizabeth Merrill, Field Yates, Hannah Storm, Ian Fitzsimmons, Jake Trotter, Jason Fitz, Jason Reid, Jay Williams, Joe Fortenbaugh, John Sutcliffe, Jordan Raanan, Kary Correa, Kenny Mayne, Kevin Seifert, Kevin Van Valkenburg, Keyshawn Johnson, Laura Rutledge, Lindsey Thiry, Marcus Spears, Mark Herzlich, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Jones, Matthew Berry, Max Kellerman, Mike DiRocco, Mike Golic Jr., Mike Greenberg, Mike Tannenbaum, Mike Triplett, Mike Wells, Mina Kimes, Nicole Briscoe, Pablo Viruega, Paul Gutierrez, Rex Ryan, Rob Demovsky, Sarah Barshop, Sebastian Martinez-Christensen, Seth Walder, Shelley Smith, Tim Hasselbeck, Todd McShay
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (+200): Chris Carlin, Dan Graziano, Jenna Laine, John Keim, Jordan Cornette, Josh Weinfuss, Kirk Morrison, Matt Schick, Mauricio Pedroza, Michelle Beisner-Buck, Mike Clay, Mike Reiss, Molly Qerim Rose, Rich Cimini
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+1100): Ben Baby, Dan Orlovsky, Emmett Golden, Jeff Dickerson, Jeremy Fowler, Matt Bowen, Todd Archer
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs (+1100): David Fleming, Jamison Hensley, Nick Wagoner, Ryan McGee, Stephen A. Smith
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (+3000): Eduardo Varela, John Buccigross, Turron Davenport
Devin White, LB, Buccaneers(+8000): Matt Barrie, Randy Scott, Tedy Bruschi
Tyrann Mathieu, S, Chiefs(+4000): Adam Teicher, Tim Keown
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs (+3000): Shae Cornette
Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (+8000): Ed Werder
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, Buccaneers (+10000): Seth Wickersham