The next few UFC cards have fallen into place. A schedule and some sense of normalcy has been restored. The big questions now revolve around who can gain a foothold in his or her respective division.
The UFC’s main event on May 13 pits top light heavyweights Anthony Smith against Glover Teixeira. The winner will gain some headway in what has become a very crowded title picture. On May 16, Alistair Overeem takes on Walt Harris in a significant heavyweight matchup. Overeem, an MMA legend, is looking to get back near the top of the heap, while Harris is trying to win his third straight and fourth in his last five.
Meanwhile, Ovince Saint Preux is moving up to heavyweight against Ben Rothwell on May 13 and Edson Barboza is moving down to featherweight on May 16. Angela Hill will be fighting Claudia Gadelha in her third fight of 2020, and seventh fight in 14 months.
With all these developments, ESPN’s panel of MMA experts — Ariel Helwani, Brett Okamoto, Marc Raimondi and Jeff Wagenheim — weighs in with analysis and opinion.
What is the surprise matchup on the cards?
Raimondi: It had been rumored for a few days, but Ben Rothwell vs. Ovince Saint Preux is a wacky one. Rothwell was apparently without an opponent at heavyweight and longtime light heavyweight OSP will move up and fight him. Rothwell is likely to have at least a 30-pound weight advantage, if not more, come fight time. I was also surprised to see Edson Barboza moving down to featherweight after having a lot of success historically at featherweight. OSP’s move isn’t permanent, but it seems like Barboza will try his hand at the lighter weight class after losing four of five.
Wagenheim: I’ve got to go with two fights, one from each card. I’m allowing myself to bend the rules because I am citing both of these bouts for very the same reason. On May 13, career-long light heavyweight Ovince Saint-Preux moves up to heavyweight to take on Ben Rothwell. And on May 16, Edson Barboza drops from lightweight to featherweight to face Dan Ige. Any time a fighter shifts weight classes is a kind of rebirth. I’m usually more on board with athletes moving up, because it eliminates brutal weigh-ins, but in OSP’s case he’s got a big, big challenge ahead — as in all 265 pounds of “Big Ben.”
Okamoto: It’s Edson Barboza vs. Dan Ige. To be clear, I like the fight. I think it’s a great fight stylistically, although I reserve judgment on how I feel about Barboza moving to 145 pounds. People close to him have told me he is super lean and can do it safely, but there’s always a little bit of nerves seeing a guy who has always looked lean at 155, attempt to move down a weight class. But on top of that, Barboza is 1-4 in his last five bouts. Now, granted the last one, a split decision against Paul Felder could have easily gone either way, and he’s been fighting the very best at lightweight, but to pair him up with Ige, who has won five in a row, doesn’t make sense on the surface. But the more I think about it, it makes sense. Ige needs a name, and Barboza qualifies. And Barboza wants to make an immediate splash, which he will if he ends Ige’s end streak.
Helwani: I’ll go with Edson Barboza vs. Dan Ige and Ovince Saint Preux vs. Ben Rothwell. I didn’t expect Barboza to move down to 145 at this point, and I certainly didn’t expect OSP to move up to heavyweight.
Who has the edge between Anthony Smith and Glover Teixeira?
Raimondi: The one thing about both of these men is they are perennially underrated, especially since their losses to Jon Jones. Smith, though, seems to be just entering his prime at 31 years old. The loss to Jones in March 2019 was his first at light heavyweight and he has since finished Alexander Gustafsson. Smith is clearly an elite-level 205-pounder. Teixeira is as well, but he’s 40 years old. I’d never count Teixeira out — he’s as tough as they come and still skilled in every area of MMA. He has won three straight, but if I were a betting man, I’d be taking Smith.
Wagenheim: Smith is in his prime. He has finished four of his last five opponents, the fifth fight in that run being a loss to Jon Jones, a guy nobody beats. And those results don’t even count the fight Dana White joked about during his ESPN interview on Friday, when he said of Smith: “He’s coming off a win over the dude who broke into his house.” So I have to favor Smith, despite Teixeira having won his last three. It won’t be easy — nothing is against Glover — but Smith bouncing back from the Jones loss to choke out Alexander Gustafsson three months later told me a lot.
Okamoto: Pretty obviously Anthony Smith. Teixeira has been a staple of the light heavyweight division for years. Any win over Teixeira means something at 205 pounds. But he’s 40-years-old and Smith, although he had a lackluster showing against Jon Jones in 2019, is still considered a legitimate top-5 if not top-3 light heavyweight. Smith has a ton of experience — he actually has more than Teixeira’s 37 pro fights, which is kind of crazy when you think about it. He’s got finishing power, cardio, fight IQ. Teixeira certainly has ways to win, but Smith has the edge.
Helwani: In a perfect world, Anthony Smith. He’s younger and has had almost a year off to take rest mentally and physically after a busy stretch last year.
Which fighter has the most at stake?
Raimondi: Overeem. His May 16 headliner against Walt Harris is critical following a knockout loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik in December. Had Overeem won that bout — and he was winning it before the last-minute finish — he’d be on a three-fight winning streak. Instead, at 39 years old, he’s trying to avoid falling out of heavyweight title contention. As it is, the winner of Overeem vs. Harris is behind the likes of Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Rozenstruik in the heavyweight pecking order. But a loss here for Overeem against a very tough Harris would mean he loses even more ground. And pushing 40 years old after 65 pro MMA fights, it’s unclear how much longer “The Reem” will be considered near the top of the division.
Wagenheim: I’ll go with Smith again. He’s squarely in the middle of the gaggle of 205-pound contenders, and he needs to win in order to maintain his spot. A loss to 40-year-old and lower-ranked Glover Teixeira would send Smith tumbling, and no one wants to spend a career playing Sisyphus.
Okamoto: I actually think it’s Anthony Smith, for the reasons I listed above. He’s coming off a finish over Alexander Gustafsson, and he’s still 4-1 in his last five bouts. But think about it. The two losses were to Jones and Thiago Santos, who is also still in the hunt for a title. His title loss to Jones wasn’t particularly close. While he’s still highly ranked, it doesn’t feel as though he has a lot of title shot momentum behind him. This is an opportunity to reassert himself as one of the elite in this division, potentially make a statement and build his case for another shot at the title. If he loses, well, he’s a light heavyweight who lost to Jones, lost to another fighter [in Santos] who fought Jones to a close decision last year, and a 40-year-old Teixeira who really isn’t in the title picture at the moment. That’s not where he wants to be.
Helwani: Feels like Ige and Dober, who both have been on rolls as of late, can take a solid step forward with wins. Also, Overeem needs a bounce back win after his devastating last-second loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik in December.
What’s your bold prediction for May 13 and May 16?
Raimondi: Marlon Vera emerges as a legitimate bantamweight title contender. Almost quietly, the Ecuador native and California resident has put together a five-fight winning streak made up entirely of finishes. “Chito” is extremely underrated, but if he knocks off prospect Song Yadong for a sixth straight win he can’t really be ignored any longer. He’d have to be put up there with the Petr Yans, Aljamain Sterlings and Cory Sandhagens of the world.
Wagenheim: Your fight of the night for May 16: Song Yadong vs. Marlon “Chito” Vera. These are two hot bantamweights. Vera has won five in a row — all finishes. And Song is coming off a December draw, but that result did advance his unbeaten streak to eight fights. Neither man is in ESPN’s 135-pound top 10 at the moment, but an exciting win could send one of these guys on his way.
Okamoto: Let’s predict the Fight of the Nights. May 13: Alexander Hernandez vs. Drew Dober. May 16: Eryk Anders vs. Krzysztof Jotko.
Helwani: Barboza won’t end his career at 145, he’ll eventually move back up to 155. He seems too big for 145. This reminds me of when Anthony Pettis moved down to 145, but eventually moved back up. And, Ray Borg will make weight. No drama this time!
Dana White said he’s working on Tyron Woodley for May 23 — Who do you want to be his opponent?
Raimondi: Woodley is saying he’s close to signing a deal to fight Gilbert Burns. That’s a fantastic fight and Burns deserves the opportunity 100% after finishing the durable Demian Maia last month at UFC Brasilia. I’d have no problem with that fight if it happens — and it will surely be enjoyable. But I think most would agree that the most anticipated opponent for Woodley would be Colby Covington, right? Those two have had a real-life beef for years now. The bout was supposed to happen several times when Woodley was welterweight champion, but it never accumulated. Even with no belt on the line, Woodley vs. Covington would be huge.
Wagenheim: Kamaru Usman. Woodley dropped the welterweight title in their first meeting, fair and square, but let’s not forget that prior to that, he had reigned for nearly three years and had put his belt on the line four times against the crème de la 170-pound crème. Proposing an Usman rematch might seem like pie-in-the-sky thinking, but Dana White did say on Friday that he has a different plan for Jorge Masvidal, the presumed next challenger. Woodley has done too much in this division to be a forgotten man.
Okamoto: It’s going to be Gilbert Burns, which is a great fight, and a fight Burns deserves. So, I’m happy to see it. But honestly, I wish we could somehow still see Leon Edwards vs. Tyron Woodley. That was a tremendous, tremendous matchup we may have lost in all this.
Helwani: The fight they are working on is Gilbert Burns, though it isn’t finalized just yet. It’s close, though, I’m told. I’d rather see the Covington fight, though. They’ve been teasing us for years and this seems like the perfect time for it.